How to Live .org

Monday, July 10, 2006

It has become increasingly clear in recent decades that technological progress advances exponentially, and taken to its logical conclusion this may imply that anything that is theoretically possible will eventually be possible in practice. Also, it seems probable that there is some possible action (or more likely, many such actions) which would lead to the elimination of all life in our known universe. Given these two assumptions, a sufficiently intelligent life form elsewhere in our universe might rationally decide that the best way to reduce this existential risk is to concentrate power into as few entities as possible. The situation seems analogous to the cold war arms race following World War II, during which some prominent U.S. scientists wanted to use the hydrogen bomb on Russia pre-emptively, not out of a sense of jingoism but out of a belief that a planet was safer if only one entity had the ability to destroy it. This seems to me a genuine risk at the galaxy or universe level, although there's probably not much we can do to mitigate the risk... we've been transmitting signals into outer space since the middle of the last century, so any sufficiently advanced intelligence in our neighborhood who wanted us eliminated probably already knows we're here.

4 Comments:

  • This of course assumes that you can knock someone out with one punch. If you don't, you put yourself at even greater risk, because what if they have the ability to resopnd in kind? And so, unless there are some folks out there flying around in a Death Star, my guess is that they'd be more likely to see if they could trade with us or sell us something (cold fusion, perhaps?), as you're better off getting along with your neighbor than trying to get rid of him. One can produce daily smiles and waves, while the other doesn't produce anything worthy of striving for.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:16 PM  

  • Thanks for the comment. You're right that I make some assumptions here, but I think all are reasonable. I assume that a more advanced intelligence could easily obliterate us; given that we already have the ability to do it ourselves, this seems reasonable to me. Regarding the question of cooperating vs. competing, I feel very fortunate that after millions of years of evolution being dominated by competition rather than cooperation, the balance seems to be shifting thanks to humans, and even if competition is still prevalent, cooperation is becoming more important. However, given the exponential progress of technology (another assumption I'm making), I think it's unlikely that we would have anything to offer an alien civilization that's even 10,000 years ahead of us (just as we would not find humans from 10,000 years ago to be desirable trading partners). And since our universe is 12.8 billion years old, as long as life is fairly prevalent in our universe (another assumption), then some alien civilizations are likely to have an unimaginable head start on us.

    By Blogger howtolive.org, at 7:49 AM  

  • Personally, I wouldn't be overly concerned about the possibility of Earth's being obliterated by intelligent beings from an alien planet - at least not in the foreseeable future. Even if some intelligent life-form out there had the capacity and desire (as well as the luck) to pick up the electronic transmissions we have been emitting over the past 50-75 years, the sheer magnitude of the distances involved would mitigate against any physical contact, let alone any obliterating attack on the Earth. Given that any such other worlds are likely hundreds to millions of light years away, it would take that length of time for our signals to reach them and, even if their spaceships were dispatched immediately and could travel at half the speed of light, twice that long for them to actually reach us - by which time they would have grown too old to remember why they came to visit. In any event, we won't be around any longer when they do arrive, as we will already have been vaporized by the Islamic Bomb, which Pakistan has developed and will share (either voluntarily or involuntarily) with the fanatical Islamists who have been convinced that it is their religious duty to destroy the non-believing West. So let's all be happy while we still can.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:03 PM  

  • It's possible that an alien superintelligence has already traveled around our galaxy (keep in mind, they could have a head start of a billion years or more) and has planted detection devices all over the place. If that were the case, they could already know about us. (It's possible that the information they gather might only be able to travel back to them at the speed of light, and I'm probably in the minority on this position, but I think there's probably a way around this speed limit for an intelligence many orders of magnitude above ours, at least for information if not for matter.) In any case, it raises an interesting possible resolution to the Fermi paradox ("If life is prevalent, why haven't we detected them?")… namely, that other life forms were smart enough not to broadcast their existence out of a fear of being destroyed. Having said all that, I do agree with you that it's much more likely that humanity will be destroyed not by aliens but by humanity itself.

    By Blogger howtolive.org, at 11:25 AM  

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