Over the last several years I have become more confident about my worldview and my beliefs. To clarify my thinking about matters that I'm less sure about, I find it helpful to make explicit statements and then try to quantify the likelihood that the statement is true. (I also find it interesting to ask the same questions a year or two later and watch how my answers change over time.) Here are a few examples:
- Life exists elsewhere in our universe: 92%
- Life of at least human-level intelligence exists elsewhere in our universe: 88%
- Human civilization will survive (that is, remain at or above its current level of technological capability) at least another 100 years: 85%
- ...at least another 1000 years: 25%
- Within 100 years, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise sovereign authority over world affairs: 40%
- The world's per capita GDP (currently around $8,000) will increase at least tenfold in inflation-adjusted dollars within 50 years: 50%
- A machine intelligence will have passed the Turing test within the next 25 years: 15%
- ... within the next 100 years: 60%
- My quality of life will improve in the next 10 years: 75%
- My life will have a net positive impact (whether small or large) on the world: 80%
- In old age I'll rate how I lived my life as very well or better: 60%
- I'll live to be more than 100 years old: 35%
- I'll live to be more than 200 years old: 1%
- Someone currently alive will live to be more than 200 years old: 25%
- I (that is, my consciousness) will survive my biological death: 3%
- Our observable universe will eventually stop expanding: 40%
- Our observable universe represents a vanishingly small fraction (let's say less than 1/10^100) of all that exists: 60%
- Everett's Many Worlds Hypothesis is correct and essentially complete: 15%
- Earth life originated via panspermia: 40%
- Earth life originated through directed panspermia: 20%
If you disagree about any of these, I'd like to hear your rationale, so that it might help me improve my estimates.